A new generation of fast growing brands has emerged post-lockdowns. Not surprisingly, they tend to be TikTok champions, but more unexpected is the unprecedented share of organic Earned in their activity mix. (up to 75% of the total footprint for top brands)
This share rarely exceeded 10% back in the golden age of Instagram (2014-2020), and goes to show how fast and how much the “winning playbook” has evolved.
The more popular brands get on TikTok, the more they get searched, the more savvy creators post about them - these virtuous cycles explain their huge lead
This note explains why organic earned is on the rise, and what brands can do to land more of it while lowering their reliance on paid Earned.
Activity mix on Instagram 2014-2021: the share of organic Earned has been growing lately, but remains smaller than it is on TikTok.
There are several factors driving the rise of organic Earned:
Suffering from influencer fatigue, Gen Z now craves independent information about brands:
All branded activity that’s viewed as unbiased, unfiltered enjoys higher odds of success (UGC, viewer comments etc)
TikTok’s meritocratic algorithm allows anyone to go viral:
This motivates smaller accounts to try their luck: even a fraction of posts from that long-tail of small accounts can mean a huge amount of engagement
While Instagram remains primarily “oligarchic’, it is gradually becoming more meritocratic 👏🏻
IG Engagement rate for influencers: smaller accounts are getting more reach at the expense of larger accounts
Search plays a key role on social (esp. on TikTok): as a result, savvy creators feature popular brands for free (i.e. organically), knowing it helps them land more views and new followers
The above highlights dynamics behind the rise in organic Earned content, but it doesn’t really explain the orders of magnitudes we see for winning brands, e.g., we estimate that well over 90% of Sol de Janeiro and Drunk Elephant earned activity is in fact organic. Why?
Brands with positive momentum enjoy self-reinforcing loops of organic activity - made up of the following stages:
💬 Viewers are more likely to comment on posts that feature popular brands: this richer comment activity makes posts “stickier”
Algorithms (esp. TikTok’s) reward sticky posts with more views, leading the top 20% of posts to land 93% (!) of engagement
These viral posts fuel trial, UGC (#haul, #review etc.), and even organic posts from opportunistic creators keen to surf the wave of popular brands 🏄🏼♂️
All this organic activity grows brand trust and tolerance for its (inorganic) content: “if so many people post about that brand without getting rewarded, it must be a great brand!” 🧐
The Organic Earned virtuous Cycles
The rise of “independent” (ie. organic) Earned posts has placed a premium on “talk-worthy”, “sharable” brand activities on- and offline: for example, sampling, sizing, merch, events (pop-up store!), partnerships (our brand on Roblox!), talk-worthy new products, PR —all are opportunities for brand fans, trialists and even considerers to contribute to the conversation by posting and/or commenting about them.
These cycles may be organic in nature, but ultimately they are orchestrated and stimulated by a marketing mix on- and offline, on and off social: today’s social ROI is more than ever impacted by off-social activities.
The rise of these organic earned cycles places a new premium on off-social activities that grow consumer participation, discussions
