Why has Instagram been less impactful for brands lately (2021-2023)?

In its Golden Age (2014-2020), Instagram was so powerful that a superior footprint consistently led to growth (in searches, site traffic, share etc.), earning the platform ‘top dog’ status. But that correlation weakened post-lockdowns, and for the elite group of brands that masters its elaborate codes, TikTok has been the platform driving more growth lately.

This note explores why Instagram lost some of its mojo, what brands can do to still get great returns there, before looking at some of the positive developments that are making us bullish about a second wind for the platform.

1. Instagram’s oligarchic algorithm (i.e. it rewards size much more than content quality) ultimately harms user experience. In fact, TikTok is dominating the battle for attention because its meritocratic algorithm gives everyone a chance to go viral. This stimulates content innovation, experimentation, risk taking. Top TikToks ⬇️ are much less likely to leave viewers indifferent, and more likely to fuel more dopamine kicks.

   

   Oligarchic algorithm ↖️ prioritises visibility based on account size - quality matters, but not as much as with meritocratic algorithms ↗️ (TikTok)

2. Oligarchic ecosystems are also sub-optimal for brands — the largest creators on IG end up cumulating so much clout ⬇️ they don’t need to excel on content quality as much as they used to back when IG was growing fastest.*

   The larger their community size, the lower the weight of content quality in their engagement equation: as long as they post more often and their unbranded content remains strong, they can get away with brand endorsements that are good enough.

   This “quantity over quality” mindset has accelerated influencer fatigue and grown consumers’ appetite for “independent information.”

   

   As top creators get even larger, the weight of content quality in the engagement equation drops. The largest creators tend to be least creative.

3. Instagram needs to make the comments section more central to the user experience — a key ingredient of TikTok’s winning recipe is the centrality of comments in the user experience. Vibrant comments sections are where engaged viewers get a real hormonal kick (see oxytocin, empathy) — as well as that “independent” brand information that surveys tell us they crave.

   If Instagram is to close the gap with TikTok, it needs to make comments more central to the user experience.

Despite these headwinds, brands can get competitive ROIs on Instagram, as long as they master those content codes that first emerge on TikTok. A minority of brands are re-applying on Instagram the content playbook they first harnessed on TikTok, and they are now growing their communities at unprecedented rates. Our data show that growth now comes with a quality over quantity mindset on both Earned and Owned. (On IG, quantity was the name of the game up until around 2021.)

Finally, recent tweaks to Instagram have further improved its prospects of a second wind, e.g.:

• IG allowing truly exceptional content to go viral in a way that wasn’t possible just a couple of years ago. This motivates experimentation and, in turn, content quality. (e.g., this post achieved over 7m engagement even though it’s an endorsement and she only had 500k followers at the time)

• Instagram now nudging viewers ⬇️ to check top comments for posts with vibrant threads. (See our note on why comments are crucial to the brand funnel) (This feature seems to be in beta, not always visible/active)

The next step Instagram should take: rewarding top content from smaller accounts more aggressively, at the expense of poor or even average content from very large accounts.* This would mean another showdown with oligarchs who want to preserve their “reach privilege”.

I don’t know about you, but I’m ready for it. 🍿

*Instagram is slowly veering towards a more meritocratic algorithm, giving smaller accounts more and more reach at the expense of larger accounts, but the rate of change is very slow…