Where is all the Instagram reach going?

Instagram has been tweaking its algorithm to be more like TikTok for years now, but around April this year, the rate of adjustment accelerated, when M. Zuckerberg told us that “more than 50% of the content people see on Instagram is now AI-recommended.”

This evolution is welcome: TikTok’s meritocratic algorithm (i.e., followers matter less, content quality/fit matters more) makes for a better user experience, increasing platform stickiness across most age groups.

Think of it this way: your Instagram content is now shown to a lower share of your followers, but this drop is partly compensated by a rise in reach to non-followers selected by Instagram’s AI:

• If these first few non-followers don’t engage, IG culls the post, and your reach ends up lower than a year ago

• If they do engage deeply with it, IG shows it to even more non-followers, leading to more engagement and faster follower growth than before

This bifurcation explains why we are seeing a tiered Instagram economy: the top 10-15% of brands are doing much better than before, another 20-25% are performing about the same, while the bottom 60-70% are doing worse (less engagement, slower follower growth).

Now that we’ve determined how Instagram distributes reach among brands, a new challenge emerges: if we average out a lot of brands doing worse with a few doing much better, the net result is still an overall decrease in reach available.

Where is all this “missing” reach going?

Instagram is finally granting smaller accounts greater reach rates at the expense of larger accounts. More specifically, it is prioritising posts that fuel more discussions across all size tiers, but especially for smaller accounts.

So what are brands supposed to do now?

There are plenty of ways to thrive on and through Instagram, but brands need to rethink their approach, marketing mix on- and off-social, content and KPIs:

• Improve their content game so posts are loved rather than just viewed and “liked” — because trust is paramount and distrust of branded content is at a peak, social media today is a lot more about “social” than “media”: aim for emotional reactions so strong that viewers want to engage others

• The same is true on paid influence: do less of it, pick and reward skilled creators able to land more social interactions, not potential or partial views

• Some offline investments stimulate more social UGC than others — typically from smaller accounts, UGC is a key source of trial because it is trustworthy. Select, design and integrate offline investments accordingly ⬇️.